So, how profitable was the promo train anyway?

Sunday, April 17, 2016 by spiralspy

Let’s do the math. From the last Equinox Promo till now I counted about half a dozen Orbit Guns either in use or offered on the market. Unlikely that I saw them all, possible that I counted some twice. So let’s assume that there’s a total of 10 Orbit Guns in existence.

The chances for unboxing an Orbit Gun are  0.99%. That means roughly 1000 boxes must have been opened on that promo. A promo box costs between $5.89 (single) and $4.25 (pack of 14). Assuming our biweekly schedule and every promo selling about the same number of boxes, this means somewhere between $8,500 and $11,780 of revenue per month in addition to energy sales.

Speaking of energy sales, is it possible to figure out how much OOO made on that? Not exactly, but we can calculate a lower bound. The argument goes like this: We usually have up to 7 pages of every kind of rarity on the auction house, set to sell over a period of two days. Whoever is putting those up (as if we didn’t know, but lets not call the click monkey names) can be assumed to only put up as many as will likely sell. One page holds 20 entries and one entry usually contains one item, so over a period of 2 days we got the following energy consumption:

  • Spark of life: 140/10*200E = 2,800E
  • Simple orb: 140/3*50E = 2,334E
  • Advanced orb: 140/3*200E = 9,334E
  • Elite orb: 140/3*400E = 18,667E
  • Silver key: 5*750E = 37,545E

So over a period of two days, we should have a minimum energy consumption of about 71k just from reselling rarities and silver keys. Over a month this would amount to 15*71kE=1065kE. Assuming the worst case again (people only buy economy), that comes down to 24 of the 45kE packs or 24*$118.94=$2854.56 revenue to suit the crafting/reviving/unlocking needs of the mathematically challenged.

All in all, my guesstimate would be that SEGA earned somewhere between $15k and $30 per month from Spiral Knights  (no idea how much they got from Puzzle Pirates).